Iran is set to deliver ballistic missiles to Russia "imminently", Bloomberg reported on Monday, amid warnings by Ukraine's allies that the shipment will have serious consequences for the Islamic Republic.
The move, if accurate, could be seen as yet another sign that Russia and Iran are strengthening their strategic partnership on a basis of their shared anti-Western rhetoric.
Russia's access to Iranian ballistic missiles could devastate civilian populations, marking a turning point in the conflict, said Farzin Nadimi, a Senior Fellow with the Washington Institute.
"When I wrote an article about the delivery of Shahed drones to Russia I warned against delivery of ballistic missiles. That it would be the main game changer for the Russians if they take large number of Iranian precision-guided ballistic missiles," said Nadimi, who made the dire warning in August of 2022.
He said some of these missiles will have enough range to hit Western Ukraine and strike important targets like railway stations.
"It's going to have a really bad effect on civilians."
Moscow’s current ballistic missile arsenal reportedly includes Russian and less precise North Korean hardware.
Bloomberg reported that their sources would not give a specific timeline or scope of the transfer, but did state it was 'imminent.' Reuters had reported in February of this year that Iran reportedly sent Russia hundreds of ballistic missiles.
That 'imminent' timing could prove to be useful to Russia, said Nadimi, who believes Moscow wants make gains in Eastern Ukraine in the battle for Donbas before the harsh Eastern European winter approaches.
Iran on Monday neither denied nor confirmed the Bloomberg report. "There is no information about what you said," Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told EU Foreign Policy Chief Josep Borrell when asked about Bloomberg's report, according to a Wall Street Journal report.
Such a deepening partnership could further isolate Iran from the West and worsen an economy already in crisis mode. Ballistic missile transfers to Russia would likely be met with additional sanctions on Iran by Western powers, as promised by Ukraine's western allies. Iran International reached out to the US State Department but did not receive a comment in time for publication.
The G-7 has already imposed several sanctions on Iran and North Korea for supplying Russia with weapons.
Alex Vatanka, the Middle East Institute’s Iran Program director, said the timing of such a deal doesn't add up with recent remarks made by Iran's president Masoud Pezeshkian.
"The timing is puzzling. It comes as Pezeshkian speaks of reducing Iran's international isolation. This sort of missile transfer only hampers Iran's ability to seek possible detente with the Europeans, which is exactly what Pezeshkian and Araghchi have mentioned, and Khamenei indirectly approved," said Vatanka.
Nadimi said the deal was likely a couple of years in the making and wouldn't have likely involved Iran's current president.
Moscow has already received hundreds of Iranian-made drones that have been used in its war against Ukraine after the two anti-Western, "rouge" countries formed a relationship following Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
This is a relationship that is based on necessity and benefits, said Gregory Brew, a US analyst with the Eurasia Group on the Eye for Iran podcast.
"Russia's war in Ukraine and Russia's increasing isolation from the international community, the weight of Western sanctions, US support for Ukraine, and Russia's need for weapons, increased arms for its war in Ukraine has offered Iran a way to increase its leverage, get a closer relationship with Moscow largely through by serving as Russia's sort of new source of armaments," said Brew during the podcast episode.
Brew told Iran International that Tehran has been making threating moves since October 2023, when the UN embargo on Iran's missiles/drones' sales expired.
"But if Iran does start sending missiles to Russia, it would not only increase its involvement in that war, but threaten worse relations with the EU, which has signaled it will sanction Iran more heavily in the event it starts selling missiles."
While Iran and Russia have a complicated past, with Moscow once having occupied Iran during the second World War, Iran has to decide whether further deepening itself in the war against Ukraine is part of its long- term goals, and does it serve to benefit.
"Iran has to decide which one is more important: rehabilitation of Iran's badly performing economy, which requires detente with the West; or prioritizing the struggle against the West with likeminded partners like Russia," said Vatanka.